Categories
College Draft sports

Post-Tournament Top 20 Prospect Rankings

*UPDATED 5/31/19* With the NBA combine and early-entry withdrawal deadline in the books I wanted to make the necessary adjustments to my ranking.  Nothing major.  Slight modifications were made to match with the final early-entry list and combine information.  I also left players like Bol Bol and Jontay Porter off my ranking due to injury concerns.

After watching the tournament I had to post an updated version of my rankings before I start posting scouting reports.  It wouldn’t have made sense if I posted a negative scouting report about a player I have ranked highly.  By updating my prospect rankings they will now be in line with my player breakdowns that are soon to be posted.  I’m trying to get at a threshold of games scouted before I start posting extensive breakdowns.  The more game notes I take the better.  With the NBA playoffs underway I’m going to post the player breakdowns sporadically but will still try to get as many out asap (Note: I haven’t watched much film on International Prospects so none are ranked):      

 

Tier #1

 

  1. Zion Williamson, FR, Duke, PF/C, 6’7, 18.7 years

~ Duh.  

 

Tier #2

 

  1. Kevin Porter jr, FR, USC, SG, 6’6, 18.9 years

~ Porter jr moves back up one spot.  If you just look at his box score stats you won’t get it.  If you look at his on and off court concerns you will think he’s too much of a risk.  He was also oft-injured for most of his freshman season.  Regardless of his baggage, I just really like how he maneuvers on a rope in traffic with his dribbling ability.  He can be knocked off his spots at times by stronger players but his live-dribble skills in tight spaces is arguably the best in this class. He’s also a tough shot maker with creation skills on defense.  He did rely on his stepback quite often even though it did create quick separation in an instant.  His poor free throw percentage and finishing ability are concerns.  But I do think the role he was playing at USC shouldn’t be his role in the NBA.  A spread pick-and-roll offense or drive-and-kick offense where he can be a primary creator and scorer would help his game flourish at the next level.  Porter isn’t going to be a player that can fit every system and won’t be able to mold his game from scheme to scheme.  Porter will be a perfect case study in situation dictates success.  In the right environment, support system and offensive scheme Porter jr can be a perennial all-star.

 

3. Ja Morant, SO, Murray State, PG, 6’3, 19.6 years

~ I moved Morant up four spots from my last ranking.  One of the big reasons why I moved him up so high and over RJ Barrett is due to long term faith in developing an outside shot.  His free throw percentage for his two seasons at Murray State was 81% which is a solid indicator of future shooting success.  His shooting mechanics can be a problem at the next level however due to his one-motion shooting technique.  One-motion shooting can quicken your jump shot but can lower your release point at same time.  He’ll need to add more core strength if he wants a more reliable long range shot at the next level.  On catch-and-shoot opportunities Morant shot 46.2% unguarded but only 26.3% guarded.  Morant will probably never be an elite shooter.  But as long as he can be an above average shooter with some shooting diversity added to his playmaking and scoring ability, his offensive game should translate.  Defensively on the other hand is a concern.  It was comical how bad Morant was defensively at times.  Blatantly letting ball handlers go by him just to attempt a back tap at the ball.  He got a lot of turnovers in the process but his defensive stance isn’t anywhere near what it needs to be at the next level.  Considering that three point shooting and defense are my two biggest concerns, it’s interesting to see him ranked third.  For one that tells me how weak this class is but secondly it should show what I think of his offensive creation skills.

 

4. Jarrett Culver, SO, Texas Tech, SG/SF, 6’7, 20.1 years

~ After an uneven performance during the tournament I have Culver ranked at four.  His first step is alright, he doesn’t have a consistent live-dribble anchor and his jump shot is still a work in progress.  His shooting mechanics are definitely something that needs improvement since it looks like he releases the shot starting on the way down.  All the tournament did is make Culver’s flaws glaring and emphasize his strengths.  Yes, Culver has trouble creating separation off the bounce.  Yes, his dribble drive stance can too hunched over at times.  And yes, his jump shot needs a better follow thru.  But where the high rank comes from is my projection.  If Culver measures out around 6’7 added with his good-to-great athleticism to go along with his creation skills off pick-and-roll, solid touch around the rim, versatile leaping ability and high level defensive play then projecting that his flaws can progress at the next level align with a tier two ranking.

 

5. De’Andre Hunter, (RS) SO, Virgina, SF/PF, 6’8, 21.3 years

~ Hunter moves down just one spot.  He ended up having a great championship game that overlooked what otherwise was a sub-par tournament performance.  Hunter is a plug and play 3-and-D wing. He just doesn’t offer that much live-dribble skills or creationism. He’s a better on-ball defender than team defender being out of position on certain actions and lingering off-ball too long.  But elite 3-and-D wings are still needed to construct title contenders.  He also possesses a high ceiling due to scarcity of position; 3-and-D swing forwards are in demand.  Hunter can also be cost efficient on his second contract due to lack of scoring prowess but will have a plus impact on-court.  Players like Hunter will be ranked highly in real plus/minus but be paid no where near what the other players on top of the real plus/minus leader board are.  Virginia in last year’s tournament lost in the first round without Hunter and this year Virginia wins the tournament with pretty much the same squad except this time Hunter plays.  I don’t know if Hunter will ever be an all-star but he sure can help a team win.

 

6. Grant Williams, JR, Tennessee, PF, 6’7, 20.4 years

~ Williams moves up four spots from my last rankings.  Grant Williams might not be an explosive athlete but he sure is a functional one.  He takes sharp angles on defense recoveries, he plays with a good low center of gravity, his defensive rotations are on a string and he uses his strong butt to carve out space.  His year after year improvement from the free throw line is encouraging for three point shooting success.  His shooting form is also pretty compact and repeatable too but I got the sense from Rick Barnes, Tennessee head coach, that he didn’t want Williams shooting threes and rather position himself in the post.  I think at the next level Williams will have more freedom shooting threes and the added confidence will go a long way.  He doesn’t really have live-ball skills; very limited off the bounce.  Most of his career he was a 17 ft and in type player.  He’s not breaking down a player off dribble any time soon but can make smart decisions when attacking a closeout or doubled in the post.  It’s really going to depend on how a team uses Williams skill set that determines his career path but I think he can produce, play good defense and have a positive impact on winning.

 

7. Darius Garland, FR, Vanderbilt, PG/SG, 6’2, 19.1 years

~ Garland moves down two spots from my last ranking.  I just wish he played a full season or even half season.  How different can Garland be when compared to other undersized scoring guards like Lou Williams and Eric Gordon?  Is that all he is or can he be a steady enough play maker to take his game to the next level?  His scoring ability and shooting portfolio give him a solid floor either way.  His injury history, size and defensive limitations are still concerns but dating back to his high school days he’s shown prowess as a shooter and scorer.  Also with how good the Clippers have been this season and how cost efficient Lou Williams is, maybe the role of a bench scorer with some play making ability and elite shooting should start to be looked at with greater reverence.

 

8. RJ Barrett, FR, Duke, SG, 6’6, 18.8 years

~ I moved Barrett down two spots from my last ranking.  If I’m wrong, I’m wrong but I think Barrett is one of the more over hyped prospects in this class.  Barrett’s overall long distance shooting, touch around the rim and free throw percentage are major red flags.  It’s the biggest reason why I’m lower on him then most other people. He also looked like just an average team defender with decent on-ball defensive skills.  He can always improve defensively since he has solid physical tools but too many times did I see him struggle to match up defensively during a scramble or poorly position himself defending at the point of attack.  But just like with Morant, Barrett’s live-ball creation skills, the ability to get to the line and pick-and-roll game make Barrett still very valuable at the next level.  The skills he needs to improve upon are all modern day necessities which makes me skeptic of Barrett even though I have him ranked eighth.

 

Tier #3

 

9. Tyler Herro, FR, Kentucky, SG, 6’5, 19.2 years

~ Herro stays ranked at number nine.  For a lot of young prospects they tend to regress as soon as conference play comes around.  Not Herro.  He improved as an on and off ball defender, was better at movement shooting and did more out of the pick-and-roll.  Herro needs to bulk up and get stronger if he wants to start finishing around the rim with efficiency.  I personally think he has the frame to fill out nicely overtime as he matures.  In the meantime, instead of attacking the rim off a closeout, Herro tends to pull up and use his excellent floater game.  Herro has fantastic touch but since he lacks explosion can be a little passive around the rim at times.  Herro is someone that I think can have a good showing at the 5-on-5 scrimmage portion of the NBA combine and rise up big boards as a result.  A lot of draft sites have him all over the board but it’s beginning to feel like more and more people are starting to buy into Herro.

 

10. Brandon Clarke, (RS) JR, Gonzaga, PF/C, 6’8, 22.5 years

~ Clarke moves up five spots from my last ranking.  If Clarke showed just a little promise shooting the ball I would have him ranked in my top five.  But guess what?  He didn’t.  Clarke in his three collegiate years shot 25% from three on .2 attempts per game and 61.8% from the free throw line on 4 attempts per game.  Yes, Clarke does possess good touch around the rim and some movement shooting 17 feet and in.  That could be an indicator for future shooting success.  Unfortunately Clarke is about to turn 23 years old.  I just would’ve liked to see more of an improvement with his feet set from the free throw line to the perimeter at this late of an age.  With that said I do think him as a rim-running, 17 feet and in type offensive player can produce at the next level.  Clarke off the dribble is really interesting because he can catch it at the perimeter, take two dribbles, spin right in the paint and leap off two feet for a power finish at the rim.  He has some live-dribble moves but I’m not holding my breath until he develops combo dribble drive moves.  On defense he possesses some switch ability, great vertical leaper at the rim and havoc creating plays on defense creating 6.1 stocks per 40 minutes.  His outside shot and off the bounce game will determine what ceiling Clarke has at the next level.  Either way he has a high floor regardless.

 

11. Romeo Langford, FR, Indiana, SF/PF, 6’6, 19.4 years

~ Langford’s pick-and-roll play is one of the biggest reasons why he’s still rank this highly.  I think Langford has a chance to be a strong wing scorer with a play making feel; those players don’t grow on trees.  Also if I had to bet on any prospect that shot less than 30% from three his freshman season and improve at the next level I would bet on Langford.  Langford shot 27% from three for the season but apparently he had a torn ligament in his shooting hand. When you combine that to his 72% free throw percentage, steady touch around the rim, inconsistent but manageable shooting mechanics, I would say Langford has a good chance being at least league average from three at the next level.  His defense was uninspiring.  He just looked average at all facets of defense: creation, on-ball, team.  It just looked like he was detached and wanted the season to be over.  I mean he didn’t even play in the NIT tournament. But when locked in defensively, he did show glimpses of good low man position ability and point of attack defense.  Langford could be one of those wings that if they don’t develop a three point shot will be a bench warmer but I think he possess enough other skills that his floor is higher than other swing forwards in this draft class.

 

12. Coby White, FR, North Carolina, PG, 19.1 years

~ Coby White was someone I was just considering last ranking and now he’s ranked twelfth.  I just wasn’t convinced about his scoring ability.  His long distance shot reminded me of Ja Morant; quick, low release and one motion mechanics.  He shot a bunch of step back jumpers and off the dribble pull up jays.  On 116 shots off the dribble White sported a .629 points per possession which ranked 27th percentile.  However throughout the season it did seem like he was putting more air underneath the ball and gave the shot more lift to shoot 38.5% from three during conference play as compared to 35.2% for the season.  Some of the biggest reasons why he’s now ranked has to do with his size, first step and defensive upside.  At 6’5, as long as he adds strength, he can be a solid combo guard with some small forward potential in small-ball lineups.  His first step isn’t elite but it’s pretty darn quick.  His overall herky-jerky dribbling style with combo dribble drive moves give him the ability to breakdown defenders off the bounce.  And for a point guard White was actually a good defensive player.  His on-ball could use some improvement but his effort level was still much better than Ja Morant.  White would whip his leg over screens to get a good angle and stay attached to ball handlers, collapse on drives and climb back to his own on kick outs.  Also, his off-ball movement on offense was pretty fair at times using cross, up or pin screens with decent relocation prowess.  As long as White continues his three point shooting ascension, he should carve out a nice role in the NBA.

 

13. Ty Jerome, JR, Virginia, PG/SG, 6’5, 21.8 years

~ Not only does Ty Jerome make my big board after being a player that “just missed the cut” last ranking but I have him ranked in the third tier.  His frame, athleticism and defensive upside are obviously big concerns.  It doesn’t look like Jerome has a wide frame to hold much muscle mass and it seems pretty slender.  His length will probably be average and I wonder if he takes part in the athleticism testing at the combine.  He might not have the defensive upside of most players on this list but his ability to give multiple efforts per play, have active feet on-ball and possess a high IQ to rarely be out of position make up for his deficiency in other areas.  Although when he does wall off a driver from the weak side, even though he wins the position and stays vertical, his average length can be easy to finish over at times.  He’s listed at 6’5 which will be a positive if true but his wingspan and hand size will be important factors moving forward. The main reason why he moved up so high on my list was offensive potential as a combo guard.  Jerome has a solid handle with sudden stop-and-go movements, a decent step back jumper and fantastic passing chops especially off pick-and-roll.  Jerome and Tyler Herro are similar prospects.  Both aren’t great at isolation scoring, getting to the hoop and exploding above the rim.  However, they are very patient with ball screens, waiting for the play to develop and identifying the open man before he pops free.  They possess some movement shooting off screens, can spot-up, off-the-dribble pull-up and are ideal shooters with touch on their floaters.  Jerome also isn’t afraid to leave his position to choke an action on off-ball defense causing turnovers.  Do both players have limited upside due to lack of physical profile?  Sure, but they have enough size to go along with skills that are becoming ever so important for today’s NBA.    

 

Tier #4

 

14. Nassir Little, FR, North Carolina, SF/PF, 6’6, 19.1 years

~  Little is frustrating.  He drops three spots from my last ranking.  I don’t even know why I have him ranked so high.  He feels like a Harrison Barnes type prospect.  A player that is primarily a scorer and nothing more on offense with some defensive potential.  Even though Little as a team defender was sub-par, I do like his defensive creation upside.  His positioning can be wonky defending dribble penetration but as long as he makes some tweaks to his footwork then his on-ball defense can translate to the next level too.  He’s an explosive rebounder and his 77% free throw percentage is a solid indicator for future three point shooting success.  He’s not going to be a pick-and-roll savant or playmaker off the bounce but he does possess a solid first step and some tough shot making ability.  Little is clearly more projection than reality but in a year where most prospects are flawed Little can be a lottery pick.  I also might have him ranked lower for my final prospect rankings, so there’s that too.

 

15. Keldon Johnson, FR, Kentucky, SG, 6’6, 19.5 years

~ Johnson moves down two spots from my last ranking.  I actually think Johnson should return to school for one more season to improve his draft stock because I don’t think it’s as high as it could be.  He isn’t great at offensive creation but does pretty much everything else average (or slightly above average) on offense. That’s not a bad thing per se but Johnson doesn’t possess one truly great skill.  He does possess nice foot work off screens, decent shiftiness in the lane and the ability to get to the rim.  His shot is also hard to trust since he wasn’t much of a long distance shooter in high school and he regressed shooting during conference play.  He also tends to leap off two feet most of the time which worries me at the next level.  Being able to leap off either foot around the rim helps throw off timing for shot blockers.  On around the basket buckets (no post-ups) Johnson sported a 1.106 points per possession which ranked 48th percentile.  Johnson may have solid speed and quickness but lacks above the rim explosion.  Defensively Johnson has the tools to become a solid wing defender but his team defense was a work in progress throughout the season having issues setting up in low man position.  He was also out done by Tyler Herro, his teammate, in terms of defensive creation.  This is now the second time Johnson moves down on my big board.  There’s still more games to be watched but I doubt he moves back up.

 

16. Cam Reddish, FR, Duke, SF/PF, 6’9, 19.5 years

~ Reddish falls two spots from my last ranking.  Take away the school on his jersey, his height and lofty high school recruitment ranking and I doubt anyone thinks Reddish is a first round pick.  But since he is 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan and has good athleticism, Reddish is talked about like a top five pick.  I just don’t know many players who went on to succeed at the next level shooting 39.4% on two pointers.  How does a player who is known for his shooting have such mediocre touch around the rim?  He mostly drives in a straight line, doesn’t have much wiggle in the lane and alters his long distance shot when closely contested.  Reddish did shoot 7.4 three point attempts per game which is great volume. The ability to get your shot off when guarded on the perimeter and shooting 77% from the free throw line can be seen as indicators of shooting success at the next level.  He does possess nice defensive creation skills due to his length but his positioning, stance and communication are still meager abilities that need to be improved upon.  If I’m wrong about Cam Reddish then so be it but I think developing his game will be a major undertaking.  

 

17. Chuma Okeke, SO, Auburn, PF/C, 6’8, 20.6 years

~ Last year I wrote a series of articles under the title “prospect watch” and wrote about certain prospects that have the potential to be lottery picks some day.  Chuma Okeke was one of the players I wrote an article about.  The article is a little dated even after just a year.  For starters the way I grade prospects has evolved and secondly there’s more film to go off of.  I stated in the article that Okeke can be a Kyle Kuzma type player, which I still kind of agree with that statement.  But I actually think Okeke can be more of a cross between Kuzma and Boris Diaw.  A heady big that can play either front court spots, that isn’t overly athletic.  He uses his skills to affect the geometry of the court on offense with his pick-and-pop play and passing ability while possessing some switch ability and defensive creation.  Getting stronger, developing core strength and better conditioning will help Okeke explode on shots around the rim and not rely on head fakes.  His ACL injury is such a shame.  If he doesn’t get hurt a good argument can be made that Auburn wins the title.  At this point however why would he return to Auburn?  He might not even play until the end of the season and at that point his draft stock probably will decline.  But since his draft stock has value now he can rehab with a pro training staff and recover for his second season as a pro.  If I were a team that’s rebuilding, drafting Okeke makes a ton of sense.

 

18. Jaxson Hayes, FR, Texas, C, 6’11, 18.9 years

~ Hayes stays ranked at number eighteen.  I don’t want to repeat myself for the third time but my biggest concern is his offensive repertoire.  Can he do much outside of 5 feet from the basket at the next level offensively?  If you put Hayes in the Clint Capela role then obviously Hayes will flourish, but hoping that Hayes plays with one of the best pick-and-roll players in the NBA is wishful thinking.  His 74% free throw percentage is a nice indicator of shooting potential at the next level but Hayes never shot the ball outside the paint.  At least last season Mo Bamba was attempting to show scouts he could step out and stretch the court. There’s nothing wrong with being a Capela, Rudy Gobert type player but I just think the positive impact a play making or shooting center has on a team is the wave of the future for NBA centers.  

 

19. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SO, Virginia Tech, SG, 6’5, 20.5 years

~ One of my biggest fallers, Alexander-Walker falls eleven spots from my last ranking.  There’s still a chance I move him back up due to his three point shooting, playmaking ability out of pick-and-roll and defensive creation ability.  But this was now the second straight year where his production and on-court impact fell off during conference play and beyond.  He has trouble playing out of isolation and too often does he pick up his dribble early forcing himself into unnecessarily uncomfortable situations.  His skill set is similar to players like Herro/Jerome but one of the biggest differences between players like Herro/Jerome and Alexander-Walker are movement shooting.  Alexander-Walker has shot off baseline stagger screens before but he really is a spot-up, set feet type shooter.  I think as long as he adds more versatility to his shooting portfolio at the next level then he should earn a role with a NBA team.

 

20. Darius Bazley, Princeton HS (OH), PF, 6’9, 18.9 years

~ Easily the highest climber on my ranking is Darius Bazley.   Bazley sat out the entire year and didn’t play any basketball last season.  He was a top-15 ranked prospect by most recruiting websites but went the route of not signing with a college or playing in the g-league and instead improving through personal workouts.  Obviously I didn’t know much about him outside of some high school games and the amateur all-star circuit.  He has good versatile size at 6’9 with a 7′ wingspan and solid athletic ability sporting the sixth best shuttle run at the combine with 2.95 seconds.  But watching him play the five on five scrimmages at the NBA combine was going to be super important.  Since Bazley is one of the youngest prospects in the draft and sat out the year, watching him go up against older players who are coming off of playing college ball was going to be telling.

The five on five scrimmage portion of the NBA combine didn’t have as many first round fringe prospects like in years past.  Instead this year were mostly projected mid-to-late second round prospects invited to participate.  I was still impressed by some players like Nicolas Claxton, Zach Norvell jr, DaQuan Jeffries, Charles Matthews, Isaiah Roby and Jordan Bone but overall the talent level of the players were lacking and the style of the game felt more novice than pro.  But a clear standout was Bazley.  His ball handling ability at that size was the first thing to pop off the screen.  He had a fine first step for someone that big, showed decent foot work on finishes, nice touch around the rim and a shot that seems workable at the next level.  It looked like he made up ground in a hurry defensively and had solid on-ball defensive moments.  And again this is coming off sitting out a year to playing live action ball against older players.  That’s why even though the talent level of the scrimmages wasn’t as pristine as in years past, to be a standout nonetheless was impressive for Bazley.  He’s still very raw and the lack of tape is totally an issue in grading a prospect properly but with his physical profile, combine footage and the lack of great depth in this class pushes Bazley into my top 20 for now.

 

Players That Just Missed The Cut

  1. Talen Horton-Tucker, SG/SF, Iowa State, FR
  2. Matisse Thybulle, SG, Washington, SR
  3. Shamorie Ponds, PG, St. Johns, JR
  4. Kyle Guy, SG, Virginia, JR
  5. PJ Washington, C, Kentucky, SO
  6. Bruno Fernando, C, Maryland, SO
  7. Rui Hachimura, PF, Gonzaga, JR
  8. Nicolas Claxton, PF/C, Georgia, SO
  9. Josh Reaves, SG, Penn State, SR
  10. Isaiah Roby, PF/C, Nebraska, JR
  11. DaQuan Jeffries, SF/PF, Tulsa, SR
  12. Terence Davis, SG, Ole Miss, SR
  13. Carsen Edwards, PG, Purdue, JR
  14. Quinndary Weatherspoon, SG, Mississippi State, SR
  15. Dylan Windler, SF, Belmont, SR
  16. Zylan Cheatham, PF, Arizona State, SR
  17. Cody Martin, SF, Nevada, SR
  18. Jordan Poole, SG, Michigan, SO
  19. Cameron Johnson, SG/SF, North Carolina, SR
  20. Zach Norvell jr, SG, Gonzaga, SO
Categories
College Draft sports

Pre-Tournament Top 20 Prospect Rankings

Before the NCAA basketball tournament starts and the NBA playoffs consume most of my time I wanted to give an updated prospect rankings.   Probably after the college basketball tournament is over I’ll start posting scouting reports on each player for a more thorough breakdown.  I think one of the many themes of this draft is centered around players who look like “small forwards” but are actually “power forwards.”  Players like De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Rui Hachimura, Grant Williams, Romeo Langford and Nassir Little all look like “small forwards” because of their body type but in actuality their skill package is more in line with “power forwards.”  Since they have the capability to play “SF” doesn’t mean that’s their true position, only that they’re versatile enough to play multiple positions.  Also, just like my last ranking I have each player ranked in tiers:

 

Tier #1

 

  1. Zion Williamson, FR, Duke, PF/C, 6’7, 18.6 years

~ With Zion healthy, Duke gets the number one overall seed in the tournament and their two losses were to Gonzaga (another one seeded team) by two points and to Syracuse by four points in overtime without Cam Reddish and Tyus Jones.  When Zion was out with an injury, Duke goes 3-3 and wins a one possession game versus the 11-20 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at home.  We’re talking about a Duke team that still had a projected first round pick (Tre Jones), a projected top ten pick (Cam Reddish) and a projected top five pick (RJ Barrett).  And yet, they’re an average team without Zion.  The overall impact Zion brings can’t be understated.  He really is a generational talent.

 

Tier #2

 

  1. Jarrett Culver, SO, Texas Tech, SG/SF, 6’7, 20 years

~ Culver moves up one spot from my last rankings.  Culver has been shooting better of late.  His guide hand is more steady on his follow thru and he’s releasing the shot at it’s apex more consistently.  He has great coordination leaping off one foot around the rim and has solid power leaping off two.  He’s a good play maker using ball screens or going live-dribble.  Add that to his great length, top level athleticism and his plus defensive skills makes Culver a tier 2 prospect.

 

  1. Kevin Porter jr, FR, USC, SG, 6’6, 18.8 years

~ He might have off the court red flags and his on-court production is nothing near any player on this list but I still think he has tier two upside.  Ranking players in a weak draft after Zion is a crapshoot and players like Porter possess enough skill added with his physical makeup to give him great upside.  I do think whether it’s because of his injury or the environment at USC it’s almost impossible to get a good read on Kevin Porter jr.  Although from what I’ve seen his body control in tight spaces, tough shot making ability and advanced dribble drive moves plus his creation ability on defense still makes me think he has all-star potential.

 

  1. De’Andre Hunter, (RS) SO, Virgina, SF/PF, 6’8, 21.2 years

~ I kept Hunter at four but his live-ball skills give me cause to pause.  He doesn’t create much separation with his handle or create for himself and others off the bounce.  He’s also too attached to his position on defense.  That still makes him a sound team defender but you would like to see more creation skills on defense like deflections, steals, blocks etc.  That could just be a schematic thing though.  But overall his efficiency on offense, shooting ability and on-ball defense to go along with his physical profile still gives Hunter a tier 2 rank.  I also think since his true position is PF and not SF that possessing a base line of live-dribble skills is a good starting point to develop from.

 

  1. Darius Garland, FR, Vanderbilt, PG/SG, 6’2, 19.1 years

~ Garland moves up two spots and he hasn’t played since November, pretty logical stuff I might say.  Bottom line is my uncertainty with this class and the fact I trust Garland’s scoring ability.  I think Garland has arguably the best long distance shooting and shot creation skills in this draft.  His size, injury and lack of defensive upside will be drawbacks that NBA front offices have to take into account.  But if Garland possesses an elite portfolio of shooting ability whether that be spot-up, off-movement, pull-up or off-dribble, then at least when it comes to this draft he should be considered a tier 2 player.

 

  1. RJ Barrett, FR, Duke, SG, 6’6, 18.7 years

~ Barrett moves down one spot on my new ranking.  I still have worries about his free throw shooting, three point shooting and finishing ability.  He definitely favors his left hand and he’s not that fluid around the basket; has some rigid motion on his finishing ability.  He does have long strong strides on his drives and when he dips his shoulder he clearly overpowers his opponent, but will that power translate to the pros?  Is he more of a power driver instead of using finesse moves in the lane?  Does he possess enough shiftiness to create separation and throw off defenders timing?  His creation skills off the dribble is the biggest reason why I think ranking Barrett number two overall is justified.  Barrett does put up good stat lines but I’m not entirely sold on him.

 

  1. Ja Morant, SO, Murray State, PG, 6’3, 19.5 years

~ Morant moves up two spots from my last ranking.  I have Morant and RJ Barrett kind of in the same boat.  I love their creation skills off the dribble but I’m worried about their touch around the rim and long distance shooting ability.  Both are elite athletes that have solid pick-and-roll skills but if you can’t be efficient around the basket or make three pointers then it’s tough to advance in the NBA as ball handlers.  I really want to see how he plays in the tournament versus teams like Marquette, Florida State and Gonzaga.  I usually don’t overrate tournament performances (aka Shabazz Napier) but since Morant has been playing in a weak conference for months, playing top tier talent will be a nice gauge for evaluation.  

 

Tier #3

 

  1. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SO, Virginia Tech, SG, 6’5, 20.4 years

~ Alexander-Walker stays ranked eighth but he moves from tier 2 to tier 3, do I think of him any differently as before?  Yes and no.  Yes because I created another tier to highlight the gap between levels. Even though I have Alexander-Walker ranked one spot below Morant doesn’t mean I think they are on the same level as prospects.  But overall I did keep him ranked at eight, so in the totality of things I don’t think of him any less.  Ever since Justin Robinson, Virginia Tech’s starting point guard, went down with an injury Alexander-Walker has taken a step back.  He’s used more on-ball now as opposed to him being off-ball typically creating with off-movement before the injury.  Even though he can step in and be the primary ball handler in a pinch that’s not really his forte.  He really should be a secondary/tertiary ball handler at the next level.  However I do like it when he one hand skip passes the ball on a rope off a ball screen; they’re so accurate and a joy to watch.  He can do that with either hand but I think that just emphasizes his overall versatility as an offensive player.

 

  1. Tyler Herro, FR, Kentucky, SG, 6’5, 19.1 years

~ You better believe I have Herro at nine.  Herro wasn’t even placed in my last rankings but now he’s nine?  Has the Old Man forgotten to take his vitamins?  I can assure you I’m lucid and this is not a typo.  Herro was apart of my fourth tier from my last ranking, so he was in consideration but didn’t make the cut.  However there has been a big difference between Herro non-conference and conference play.  For starters he’s a much better all-around defender now then he was at the start of the season.  That doesn’t mean he’s getting more steals/blocks but he’s doing a better job defending from weak side low man position, choking plays off-ball and recovering to his own and attacking closeouts.  I don’t know if Herro will ever be a great on-ball defender but he definitely is more active now trying to cut off players angles.

Offensively he has the diverse shooting portfolio that lends itself to next level success; good footwork and a nice compact repeatable shooting motion.  He has trouble creating separation off the bounce, which is a negative, but when using ball screens he reads gap protection well and attacks accordingly.  He isn’t very strong around the rim on his finishes since he isn’t an explosive player.  But what he does do instead of getting to the rim is stopping short and pulling up for floaters/runners.  Showing excellent touch Herro is shooting 1.048 points per possession on his runners which ranks 88th percentile.  He currently is shooting 1.05 points per possession on shots around the basket (no post-ups) which ranks 37th percentile.  With better core strength and conditioning he should get better attacking the rim and finishing through contact since he has displayed great touch on movement twos.

Herro isn’t going to be a player that has great measurables or athletic testing at the combine.  A matter of fact I think he has a 6’4 wingspan.  But overall he has the requisite skills and has shown vast improvement over the course of the season that should contribute to his future growth.  I think he has major sleeper potential.

 

  1. Grant Williams, JR, Tennessee, PF, 6’7, 20.3 years

~ Moving up six spots, Williams is one of my biggest climbers.  Clearly moving him up into my top 10 means I think he’s a top prospect but also this says a lot about how I feel about this draft.  So many players in this draft are inconsistent with their skills and production while Williams continues to be solid week after week.  He’s young for a junior, one of the better two-way players in this class and is an improving outside shooter.  He does have a limited handle, isn’t an above the rim player and lacks advanced creation skills off the bounce.  I guess I’m just skeptical of so many players in this draft that Williams’ consistency, year over year improvement and overall skill give him just as much upside as some of the acclaimed freshmen in this draft.  Just like with Tyler Herro, I think Williams has sleeper potential.  

 

  1. Nassir Little, FR, North Carolina, SF/PF, 6’6, 19 years

~ Little moves up two spots from my last ranking.  Even though I list him as a “SF/PF” his best position at the next level will undoubtedly be “PF”.  Little is probably the most volatile prospect on my ranking.  One week I think he’s a tier 2 player and should be ranked in the top 10 and the next week I have him ranked 17th with a tier 4 ranking.  Since Little is shooting 76.8% from the free throw line and 58.6% from shots around the basket (not including post-ups) I wouldn’t be shocked to see Little improve as a three point shooter next level due to decent touch and better shot selection.  Also for conference play he shot 31.6% from three compared with his overall percentage of 28%.  He’s an explosive rebounder with solid creation skills on defense.  However, his defensive IQ is still a major work in progress, taking bad angles and misreading weak side actions.  He also drives with his head down on offense and has a bad feel for doubles and where to find the open man.  Little still has tremendous upside because of his physical tools but should be a project.  A lot of times situation dictates success and it’s going to be no different for Little.

 

  1. Romeo Langford, FR, Indiana, SF/PF, 6’6, 19.3 years

~ I had a tough time grading between Langford and Keldon Johnson.  I went with Langford one spot higher because of conference play. Both players didn’t overwhelm during conference play but Langford did play slightly better as compared with his non-conference schedule while Keldon Johnson stayed the same or got worse in some respects.  While Langford is more of a straight line driver off the bounce, Johnson has more shiftiness and change-of-speed in the lane.  However Langford does a better job setting up his defender and reading ball screens compared with Johnson.  While at the rim Lanford can leap off one foot and finish with better finesse than Johnson can.  Lanford on shots around the basket (no post-ups) posted a 1.356 points per possession which ranked 87th percentile while Johnson posted a 1.038 points per possession which ranked 35th percentile.  Johnson for the season shot 38% from three which was far better then Langfords 27% from three.  But Johnson was worse from two, the free throw line and around the rim.  Langford also shot 32.1% from three during conference play while Johnson shot 32.7% from three during conference play.  I also think Langford is the better on-ball defender while Johnson is better at lock-and-trailing.  Overall it was close but Lanford did a slightly better job at progressing throughout the season.

 

  1. Keldon Johnson, FR, Kentucky, SG, 6’6, 19.4 years

~ There are a lot of players that I’ve moved down one or two spots on my ranking but a lot goes into that more than me being down on a prospect.  I’m moving Johnson down two spots but that has more to do with other players improving and Johnson staying the same.  A big theme of this draft class is improving strength and conditioning.  I think players need to develop core strength for a lot of things: finishing at the basket, movement shooting and long range shooting. Johnson could use to add strength to finish through contact.  He uses his two-foot leaping ability to finish through players since jumping off two-feet adds power and body control but he neglects using one-footed leaps to throw players off their timing.  I think he has good touch around the rim which is displayed by his .939 points per possession on runners which ranked 80th percentile.  But he needs to add strength and use one-footed leaps to be more efficient around the rim.  I still like his footwork off screens, his ability to get to the rim and make tough movement shots.  He’s improved as a defender throughout the season but is still a work in progress as far as low man defense is concerned.

 

  1. Cam Reddish, FR, Duke, SF/PF, 6’9, 19.4 years

~ Cam Reddish and Nassir Little are two of the most frustrating prospects to grade in this class.  They look like top five talents and should be top five prospects but their skills don’t match the hype.  Reddish had a perfect opportunity to showcase himself to the league when Zion went out with a knee injury.  Instead I saw more of the same, just in heavier doses.  He is a poor two point shooter, stiff finisher, inconsistent three point shooter with no wiggle in the lane.  He is more of a volume three point shooter, drives in a straight line and has some shooting versatility.  He does curl off screens with solid footwork and can be more than just a spot-up jump shooter.  Defensively his team defense is just average and that’s being generous.  He still has an amazing physical profile, ability to get his shot off at a high volume and closeout speed you want for defensive creation.  I hate ranking him this low because I understand his upside and realize he’s more of a project that could turn into a high caliber player.  I bet you more than anything he’ll be a “workout warrior” and blow teams away during the pre-draft process.  All I have is the tape to go off of and what it’s telling me is that he’s an unrefined ball player.

 

Tier #4

 

  1. Brandon Clarke, (RS) JR, Gonzaga, PF/C, 6’8, 22.4 years

~ Clarke doesn’t move up or down and stays at the same rank.  There has been a recent surge from the scouting community on Clarke because if you look at his overall career it’s very impressive.  He’s a great team and on-ball defensive player plus he possesses defensive creation skills.  I just think players like Grant Williams and Tyler Herro have more offensive potential then Clarke does.  Even though Clarke has great defensive instincts, can switch 1 thru 5 and uses his athleticism to wall off the rim I’m not sure he will ever be a three point threat.  He projects to be more of a rim-runner with 17-foot and in face up skills.  That’s still extremely valuable to have at the next level but it caps his upside if he can’t go out any further.  With that said he should still clearly be a top twenty pick and if he falls any further because of “lack of true position” then some smart team will take full advantage of their miscalculation.

 

  1. Shamorie Ponds, JR, St. John’s, PG, 6’1, 20.7 years

~ Ponds moves up two spots from my last ranking.  I think Ponds is one of the most undervalued players in this draft.  I said that in my last overview of Ponds but that can’t be overlooked.  Most mock drafts I’ve seen have him going middle of the second round.  If he gets that that kind of evaluation maybe he stays in school for another season to improve his draft stock.  I think what gets undersold about Ponds is his step-back/pull-up game, defensive creation skills, and crafty finishing ability.  His ability to make shots off the dribble, attack closeouts, make free throws, throw off a defenders rhythm in the lane and play with multiple speeds can translate to the next level even though Ponds is short with just OK burst and explosion.  He’s also been playing at St. Johns the past three years with little support.  The season before Ponds got to St. Johns they went 8-24 and now having some supporting cast around him this season they make the tournament.  With a little more added muscle Ponds has starting point guard in the NBA potential.  

 

  1. Talen Horton-Tucker, FR, Iowa State, SG/SF, 6’4, 18.3 years

~ Dropping eleven spots, Horton-Tucker is one of my biggest fallers.  It really doesn’t have much to do with liking Horton-Tucker any less but more to do with tempering my expectations for a player I’m probably overrating.  One of my biggest concerns is his lack of overall touch.  He has strong strides on his drives to the rim but can’t put enough touch on the ball for efficient makes.  Although, his tough shot making ability, dribble drive game and high IQ give him a nice starting point at a young age that most players in this draft don’t have.  But with possessing tough shot making ability comes poor shot selection and taking unnecessary looks that can through team offense out of rhythm.  I also think one of the biggest improvements he can make is better strength and conditioning.  I said this in my last overview of Horton-Tucker but I truly believe with better core strength he’ll be better around the rim and shooting from long range.  With better conditioning he can do a better job playing more consistently latter into the game.  Losing some body fat will undoubtedly help him be a better on-ball defender as Horton-Tucker is already a good team defender plus solid defensive creation skills.  I wonder if he even enters the draft at all but until that decision he’s a tier 4 player for this draft class.

 

  1. Jaxson Hayes, FR, Texas, C, 6’11, 18.8 years

~ Hayes falls 5 spots from my last ranking.  It had nothing to do with his knee injury either.  I think Hayes will be a screen setting, rim-runner, wide catch radius, paint protecting big.  He has the size and athleticism to fit that mold at an elite level.  My concern is offensive potential.  I’m concern that all he ever becomes is a Andre Drummond, Hassan Whiteside, Deandre Jordan type player.  Not having an offensive game outside the paint becomes a glaring issue more so in the postseason than the regular season.  The position of center is so saturated in the league that not being able to step out of the paint diminished some of his value.  

 

  1. Jontay Porter, SO, Missouri, C, 6’11, 19.3 years

~ I wrote a scouting report on Porter last September for a more extensive breakdown.

 

  1. Jordan Poole, SO, Michigan, SG, 6’5, 19.7 years

~ The last spot on my ranking was between Jordan Poole and Matisse Thybulle.  While Thybulle is the superior defensive prospect, Poole has a better all around game.  I think Poole is better at shot creation, off the bounce production and has a more complete three point shooting portfolio.  Poole might not be as good at defensive creation as Thybulle but is still a sound enough team and on-ball defender coupled with his physical profile to give himself sufficient defensive upside.  Thybulle could end up being a great 3-and-D player but I think Poole could end up being a great two-way player.

 

Players That Just Missed The Cut

~ Matisse Thybulle, SG, Washington, SR

~ Ty Jerome, PG/SG, Virginia, JR

~ Killian Tillie, PF/C, Gonzaga, JR

~ Chuma  Okeke, PF/C, Auburn, SO

~ PJ Washington, C, Kentucky, SO

~ Bruno Fernando, C, Maryland, SO

~ Naz Reid, C, LSU, FR

~ Coby White, PG, North Carolina, FR

~ Rui Hachimura, PF, Gonzaga, JR