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College Draft Player Breakdown sports

Scouting Report: Coby White (Rank 4, Tier 2)

Scouting Report:

Coby White (Rank 4, Tier 2)

6’5/6’5 wingspan/191 pounds/19.3 years/FR

 

Coby White is one of my biggest movers on this ranking.  A lot of that has to do with his scoring prowess.  For this draft class Coby has top level scoring instincts, can shoot threes in a variety of ways and is an improving play maker.  Being long, athletic with a good frame is great for potential but if you can’t dribble, shoot and create for yourself then that potential’s value is cut in half.  Even though Coby is listed at 6’5 he doesn’t have that big of a frame.  His shoulders are pretty slight with average size hands and a build that might not fill out.  The hope is that over time he will develop strength albeit with a slender frame.  His physical advantage is speed and quickness.  Coby might even be faster than Ja Morant but doesn’t have the vertical explosion to match.

Coby might not be an above the rim player but has craft and touch in his arsenal.  He shot 67% on all his attempts around the rim and only 17.9% of those were assisted.  He can change hands mid air on lay up attempts, go up-and-under for stealthy finishes and put soft english on the ball to fit over longer players.  He’s a decently versatile leaper around the rim with same foot, same hand lay in’s but tends to jump off two feet around rim.  I think as soon as he gains longer body strength he should use one footed leaps around the rim more frequently.  He has a quick first step with speed down hill with a multitude of hang dribbles, push crossovers, behind the back moves and hezi jimbos.  His sudden stop-and-go movements get defenders leaning and his blazing speed gets himself into the lane.  When he gets into the lane he likes to use a left-to-right spin move for separation and uses his momentum wisely to carry his body in space creating angles whether that be on step-backs or fallaways.  Unfortunately his handle can be too high, leaving the ball out in front exposed for deflections.  He needs better control and a steadier center of gravity.  Moving side to side can be an issue as well as White can be loose with his dribble.  As I said earlier, the hope is that additional core strength will improve control.

White is a score first guard that needs to see the court better but can make plays off the pick-and-roll since the game is slowed down.  Possessions that include passes off the pick-and-roll, White sported a 1.407 points per possession which ranked 97th percentile.  When he gets sped up White doesn’t see the court as well as he could but with a ball screen he does a good job looking for cutters and weak side action with one handed skip passes on occasion.  He can turn the corner off a hedge even with a dribble that’s high but what’s most impressive are his splits through doubles or hedges.  That was probably one of the first things I noticed about White, his ability to split pick-and-roll coverage’s.  That’s such a useful move to get the offense a 5-on-4 advantage on his way to the rim.  Although when he did split the coverage when he pulled up off the dribble White sported a .629 points per possession which ranked 27th percentile. Having better shot selection, more strength and body control should help with his off dribble game.

Just like with Ja Morant, White has a lower release point.  White had an inconsistent release point though and at times it was as low as his chin and as high as over his head.  Having a fluid set point definitely quickens your shooting mechanics but unless you get the ball high enough on the follow through and develop core strength then the shot may be prone to contests.  Luckily for White he does a good job of step backs, pull ups and momentum altering shots that create space to get the shot off.  He also sported a 1.339 points per possession on catch-and-shoot situations which ranked 93rd percentile.  Even in a limited fashion at North Carolina White displayed good instincts off-ball.  He set good cross and up screens plus pin-downs using his shooting gravity at times to distort the angles of the court.  He was more active off-ball than Morant and it’s something that I think is underrated when talked about Coby White.

White also tried on defense unlike Morant did this past season.  Coby isn’t the biggest, strongest or most vertically explosive player but he gave multiple efforts, fought over screens and used his quickness to his advantage.  Yes, when he did get caught up in a screen it took him time to recover but remarkably White did a solid job whipping his inside foot over screen setters to get skinny over screens.  He would then stay attached to the ball handler and hustle even if he was behind some.  White was actually a decent team defender collapsing middle on drives, walling off weak side attacks and cutting off drives at the nail then recovering back to his own.  Sometimes after making the initial rotation Coby would get stuck in the muck and at times he missed his sink-and-fill assignments but overall Coby was an above average team defender.  His quickness allowed him to stay in front of players but at times he over gambled and lost position.  Playing on his toes more, working on his lower body and strengthening his butt would help in terms of on-ball defense.

The importance of creating a shot for yourself can’t be understated.  It’s obviously important to have other skills and a baseline of NBA athletic ability but during the playoffs players who can’t dribble, shoot and create buckets for themselves are impossible to play.  White got better as the season went on and considering we’re talking about ACC play that was highly impressive.  I don’t know if White will ever be a starting point guard on a title team but can he be a highly productive rotational piece on a title team?  I think so.

 

* All stats provided by Synergy Sports Tech and Hoop-Math*

 

 

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College Draft Player Breakdown sports

Scouting Report: Ja Morant (Rank 3, Tier 2)

Scouting Report:

Ja Morant (Rank 3, Tier 2)

6’3/6’6 wingspan/175 pounds/19.8 years/SO

 

I’m not as sold on Ja Morant as everyone else seems to be.  Memphis has already announced they are selecting Morant well in advance of the actual draft and he ranks number two on most big boards I’ve seen.  The hype for Morant is for real.  Now you may be asking the question, “Hey OldMan?  If you’re not high on Morant then why rank him number three?”  Fair question random reader.  The number one reason why he ranks so high on my big board is his shot creation ability; whether that be creating for himself or his teammates.  He has one of, if not the best first step in the entire 2019 draft class.  He uses a variety of quick twitch hesitations for his primary dribble drive move that creates separation.  Combine that with an assortment of crossovers with either hand and he breaks down the defense like a pro.

Morant is quick to process on offense, has a good feel for play maturation and solid passing instincts.  If the defense loses a player baseline get ready for an on time lob pass by Morant.  He’ll look off defenders for no look passes, draw defenders in the paint for dump off passes and find cutters with ease.  Morant doesn’t just sit back and take what the defense gives him but rather manipulates defenders into getting the play he wants.  His ability to read the game in layers and play make off it will always be a coveted skill in the NBA.    

He’s pretty ambidextrous with his handle and finishing ability.  He can leap off either foot, two foot leap for power and slam dunk off one foot in transition.  He doesn’t quite have great touch but rather good touch around the rim sporting a 61% field goal percentage around the basket.  His body control can improve on his finishes and I think gaining more strength would help improve his overall touch around the rim.  Morant can make tough shots off the dribble but wasn’t really asked to do much off-ball.  Improving as a movement shooter will be important since he won’t have the ball in his hands as much as he did sophomore season.  He wasn’t that active off-ball on offense but did sport a 1.133 points per possession on all catch-and-shoot situations which ranked 72nd percentile.  He did that on only 45 possessions though so the sample size isn’t hefty.  He also sported a .778 points per possession on all catch-and-shoot plays his freshman season which ranked 20th percentile.  He uses a one motion shooting technique for his follow through on his jump shot.  It lowers the release point but quickens the mechanics.  He needs to gain more lower body and core strength to help him with his long distance accuracy.  Since he shot 81% from the free throw line his two seasons at Murray State, has pretty solid touch around the rim and improved as a shooter from season to season gives me enough indication of potential shooting success in the NBA.

Like I said at the beginning of this report I have my concerns.  For starters he was a far better transition player than half court player which is somewhat concerning.  He scored 1.197 points per possession on all transition plays which ranked 78th percentile but on half court plays scored a .885 points per possession which ranked 58th percentile.  He also took a lot of risky passes through tight seams on the court for a fair amount of turnovers which could make for a messy adjustment period at the next level.  His off-ball offense is cause for pause, his small frame could ultimately be a problem, he needs to work on his strength and his shot isn’t a guarantee that it’ll translate to the pros.  His top tier play making ability and shot creation prowess are what’s holding me back from ranking him any lower.

The biggest concern I have however is his defense.  The amount of times I saw him blatantly let the ball handler he was guarding pass by just to attempt a back tap from behind at the ball was ludicrous.  He was more concerned about making a play on the ball instead of being a sound defender.  He’s done that as an off-ball defender too by reaching and swiping down instead of playing gap protection.  I get that his usage was 33% and he had so much to do on offense.  He was pacing himself throughout the game and expended a lot of energy on the offensive side of the ball.  I’m just worried he developed bad habits his sophomore season.  His defensive stance is either hunched over or straight up.  Rarely did I see him sit in his stance and use his butt as an anchor.  He floated off-ball with lackadaisical effort at times and needs to be more alert on give-and-go’s plus backdoor passes.  He hardly lock-and-trailed his man and shot the gap mostly or avoided screens all together.  It’s not all bad though.  Morant has shown that he’s capable of hugging the lane line and making rotations on help defense.  He also used his quickness and lateral agility to stay in front of ball handlers but only when he felt like it.  His athletic ability was a major redeeming quality on defense as that’s how he made up for his mistakes.

Having a consistent long range shot, gaining strength and putting effort in defensively are points of contention that Morant has to improve upon in the NBA.  Even with all my concerns I have Morant ranked third.  The substantial selling point is obviously his shot creation and play making talent.  Those still are in demand skills and very important for playoff basketball.  Pairing Morant with Jarren Jackson is a nice way to kick off a rebuild and should help with Morant’s progression.  

 

* All Stats provided by Synergy Sports Tech *

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College Draft Player Breakdown sports

Scouting Report: Jarrett Culver (Rank 2, Tier 2)

Scouting Report:

Jarrett Culver (Rank 2, Tier 2)

6’7/6’9.5 wingspan/194 pounds/20.3 years/SO

 

Jarrett Culver started off ranked number two in my pre-tournament rankings and that’s where he’ll finish off.  The overall growth potential that Culver has is too enticing.  The combination of good size, decent frame, budding skill, workable shot and defensive prowess makes Culver a perfect upside play for today’s NBA.  He isn’t overly long and has a pretty mediocre standing reach at 8’4.5. To put that in perspective, Tyler Herro, who has a shorter wingspan than height sports the same standing reach as Culver.  If Culver wants to guard the best wing scorers in the game today he’ll need to pack on a few more pounds and bulk up.  His great athleticism and height is his saving grace.  Culver had a recent growth spurt since he measured in at 6’5 entering college and now leaves Texas Tech closer near 6’7.  Those additional inches will help in terms of getting shots up over pressure, defending multiple positions and seeing over the top of the defense.  Culver is quick off his feet around the rim, covers the court with his speed and shows slippery hips on point of attack defense.  His physical profile isn’t great but good enough to warrant the hype he’s getting.

On offense Culver is a solid play maker.  After being blitzed off a ball screen he can hit weak side shooters with an over the top pass or pocket pass to the release value.  He finds back action shooters with space coming of high side pick-and-roll’s or finds the roll-man with lob passes on side pick-and-roll’s.  Culver had 209 assists to 160 turnovers for his career at Texas Tech.  There’s still room for improvement as at times he gets careless with the ball and reads a play that was never going to open in the first place.  During the national championship game Culver forced some of these plays for boneheaded turnovers.  All in all Culver is a pretty heady play maker off the bounce or with a ball screen but needs to identify actions with more caution before making a silly turnover.

His long range shot is a hot topic.  He shot 68.7% from the free throw line and 34.1% from the three point line in his two years at Texas Tech.  He also shot 33.9% on his two point jumpers.  On catch-and-shoot situations Culver sported a .908 points per possession which ranked 34th percentile and on all jump shot opportunities he sported a .848 points per possession which ranked 37th percentile.  From a numbers perceptive Culver seems like a below average to average jump shooter.  His shooting mechanics look tense with no flow.  They aren’t compact or repeatable and it seems like he needs to work out the hitch in his release.  At times on the load up he generates power while flat footed but needs to spring off his toes to allow the power from his lower body and not his shoulders.  His shot clearly needs work and his shooting percentages are weak but considering he has solid touch around the basket shooting 67% around the rim and makes a fair amount of unassisted tough shots, there is some indication that he can improve his shot at the next level.  For Culver to reach full potential his shot is priority number one to fix.

His handle is solid but needs to be upgraded.  He lacks an elite first step, is sometimes hunched over when he dribbles, too high of a dribble and needs a consistent low center of gravity.  He uses a variety of rips, pumps and jab steps out of the triple threat to create separation with his slightly above average first step.  He tends to be more of a straight line driver and doesn’t possess enough side-to-side wiggle in the lane.  He can throw down off two feet from a spin move in the lane for some space creation or use a combination of push crosses and behind the back dribbles to change direction.  As long as he keeps the ball low, has a good anchor underneath him and use his left hand more frequently then he’s capable of having a much better handle.  A lot of things on offense for Culver need to be worked on but are definitely manageable.  Nothing he does is broken and has shown spurts of greatness in all areas on offense.

Overall as a defender Culver is one of the better one’s in this draft.  He’s good at creating events on defense and on-ball and team defense.  He isn’t afraid to leave his man weak side to take a charge in the lane or crash down on some strong side action causing havoc.  He has solid anticipation and hand eye coordination on deflections covering a lot of ground quickly in the process.  At times I noticed him staring at the ball one second too long and be late to process as a result.  But overall he does a fine job with his low man rotations and weak side contests.  He’s also a good live ball defender with long lanky legs creating a wide base and good anchor to contain dribble penetration.  He’ll stay attached to his man’s hip, doesn’t bite on fakes for the most part and funnels his man into help defense. Sometimes he needs to finish out the play since I’ve seen him gear up for a box-out while he should be gathering for a rim contest.  Getting stronger with better core strength will help with contact, rebounding and switching.

The year-over-year improvement for Culver is a reason why I’m betting on his growth potential.  Depending on how his body develops he could conceivably play positions one through four on offense and defend one through 5.  The biggest question I will monitor will be his shot process. That’s going to be key for him. Culver to me projects nicely as a two-way big wing with play making ability.  If that’s the ceiling then why not take the gamble?

* All stats provided by Synergy Sports Tech *

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College Draft NBA Player Breakdown sports

Scouting Report: Zion Williamson (Rank: 1, Tier: 1)

Scouting Report:

Zion Williamson (Rank: 1, Tier: 1)

6’7/6’10 wingspan/280 pounds/18.9 years/FR

 

Who else would be number one on my prospect rankings?  No offense to every other player in this draft but it isn’t even close.  Could Zion stand to lose a few pounds?  Sure.  Does he need to get in better shape?  No doubt.  Do I wish he had a longer wingspan and standing reach?  Who doesn’t.  But in terms of physical profile Zion isn’t just elite, he’s generational.  It’s his body control on rim attacks, his coordination on vertical hops, his fluidity off his back foot, his delicate footwork and his ability to catch, gather and accelerate in little wasted motion.  No man should be able to do what Zion does at his weight.  A lot of players have busted out of the league with elite athleticism.  They didn’t know how to harness it into basketball related activities.  Zion takes his elite athleticism and turns it into functional basketball movement.  He moves on a string inside the courts dimensions.  It’s one thing to be athletic, it’s another to couple that with skill.

One of the major points of contention about Zion is his long distance shooting.  He shot 33.8% from three for the season which isn’t terrible but his 64% free throw percentage didn’t do him any favors in terms of future predictors of success.  On all jump shot attempts Zion sported a .925 points per possession which ranked 52nd percentile and .966 points per possession on all catch-and-shoot opportunities which ranked 44th percentile.  Mechanically speaking his release is really flat and it doesn’t get much air underneath the ball.  He needs more extension on his follow thru and the shot to be released at it’s apex point.  Luckily, Zion possesses good touch around the rim.  His FG% at the rim was 79.2% and considering that 72% of his shot attempts came at the rim that’s great touch.  He also made 47.1% of his two point jumpers.  Some of those were movement two point jumpers off fallaways, fadeaways or while drawing fouls.  He was also capable of making pull-up threes off the 1-2 step or hitting step-back threes.  It isn’t a guarantee that Zion becomes a proficient three point shooter at the next level but considering his solid touch, two point percentage and difficult shot making ability, those pluses lead me to believe that it’s totally conceivable for Zion to become an above average shooter at the next level.  

Even if Zion becomes an average three point shooter, the overall skill that Zion possesses is still very advanced for someone his age.  While he can be too reliant on left hand finishes or left side drives, he has shown the capability to drive off the right side or with the right hand.  It’s the frequency of right handed attempts that Zion needs to increase.  He has displayed change-of-direction, change-of-speed, shifty moves on his drives with either hand.  He makes sharp, fluid dribble drive moves off the bounce using a cross move, between the legs or going behind his back, changing his driving angle, jump stop and finish through traffic.  The amount of wiggle the man has for a player that size is pretty remarkable.

I’ve seen him drive into the three defenders waiting for him in the paint, miss the shot, get his own rebound and finish off the play.  Saying that Zion absorbs contact in the lane is an understatement. Even though he has less than impressive wingspan, around the basket Zion still fits the shot over longer players, puts solid zip on the ball and contorts his body with great control to finish verses length.  Zion can leap off his left or right foot with solid coordination but too often does he rely on his two foot leaping ability.  Being more versatile around the rim would help throw off defenders trying to contest his shot rhythm.  He can also be more careful on how he lands after vertical leaps.  Too often did I see him land on one foot after a monster slam which made me fear a torn muscle.  To avoid injury he needs to start landing on two foot with more regularity to evenly disperse his weight throughout his lower body.

Zion is an underrated playmaker.  He can create off pick-and-roll, closeout or live-dribble.  Zion will read all levels of the defense and can promptly find corner cutters, roll-men or weak side shooters.  He obviously isn’t perfect at shot creation and will be out of control at times.  Zion has the IQ to be a high quality playmaker but needs to let the play breathe before he can take action.  He didn’t have much space or shooting at Duke so that improvement at the next level will surely balance his shot creation skills some.  I don’t know how often Zion will be stationed in the post in the NBA but he will fight for his spots on the court.  If you give up his preferred post position call it a wrap.  He draws fouls too easily at that point.  It’s tough to stop Zion in the paint after a post feed with his momentum and touch.

On defense Zion graded mostly positive.  Like all young players though he did show his lapses on team defense.  He sometimes will sink too far down on defense when he should be pressing the shooters on the perimeter or checking one man over but instead he gears up for block.  Don’t get me wrong he’s an excellent weak side shot blocker.  He has a fantastic second jump on blocks, quicker than most players one jump.  The amount of space he covers in a short period of time is elite.  He can be sitting under the basket, take two long strides and be in position to block a shot above the break.  He takes powerful but nimble strides on his closeouts.  He can make up for mistakes in a hurry with how quick he covers space; sometimes relying on his athleticism too often in the process.  But in certain instances he does stick to the perimeter when he should be tagging the roll-man or helping the helper.  He was still overall a good team defender playing the game low and making reads on the ball.  He could jump a pass for the steal or choke the action off-ball stalling the play.  As an on-ball defender Zion could possess the ever elusive switchable skill factor.  His hips are on a swivel, changing direction to stay attached to quicker guards.  He does a nice job kick sliding back with his man on dribble penetration making sure he doesn’t double step.  He will use his off-arm staying attached to his man on an attack to alter driving angles but at times can be too touchy drawing checking fouls.  

Not a lot needs to be said about Zion.  I probably wrote too much as is.  Zion is a generational talent at a time where the league benefits from the skill set that Zion owns.  There’s been some comparison to Lebron: a two-way, big wing scorer with playmaking ability.  That class belongs to players like Kevin Durant and Kawhi Leonard.  The best of the best.  Those are lofty comparisons that I won’t make. Instead I could see Zion in the mold of Blake Griffin meets Draymond Green.  The physical profile, offensive skill set and athletic gifts of Blake while having the IQ and defensive prowess of a Draymond Green.  Hopefully New Orleans does right by Zion and surround him with enough shooting, versatility and ball handling to succeed.  I could easily see New Orleans screw that up though and waste another superstar players talents.  For the sake of the league I hope I’m wrong.

*All stats provided by Synergy Sports Tech*

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College Draft Player Breakdown sports

Season In Review: Jontay Porter

Jontay Porter,  Missouri,  Freshmen

PF/C,  6’11.5”,  7’0.25” wingspan

9’1” standing reach,  236 pounds,  18.8 years old

 

After last season Jontay Porter decided to enter the NBA draft and participate in the draft combine.  He ended up withdrawing his name from the 2018 NBA draft and returning to Missouri for his sophomore season.  During the pre-draft process many NBA draft websites had Porter as a first round selection, some even lottery bound.  Now that he’s projected to enter the 2019 NBA draft these same websites have Porter as a lottery selection in what amounts to a potentially weak draft.  I really didn’t watch Missouri games last season except for the Michael Porter games, so my level of Jontay Porter knowledge is novice like.  With so many draft websites that I respect having Porter as a 2019 lottery pick I decided to go over as much game tape as possible, breakdown Porters abilities and determine if he really warrants a lottery selection next draft:

 

Jontay Porter has good not great length for a center standing at 6’11.5” but with a 7’.025” wingspan.  His 9’1” standing reach could be his most important physical attribute since it helps him cover ground best in comparison to his lackluster athleticism.  Porter has a 13.85% body fat percentage worst at the 2018 combine.  Porter was out of shape as a freshmen and is partial reasoning as to why he didn’t play more minutes.  Draymond Green serves as a good example of a frontcourt player who suffered from weight issues and redefined his body at the pro level.  Reportedly Green lost about 20 pounds from his rookie to sophomore season with the Warriors (Link).  Green was also a senior when he came out of college and Porter will be a sophomore giving more time for Porter to make enhancements to his diet and exercise.  

Porter is going to need to be in better shape at the next level if he wants to make up for his lack of recovery speed.  Porter was in last place at the 2018 combine when he ran a 3.40 three quarter sprint. Testing his foot speed Porter ran the eighth worst lane agility test at 11.90 seconds.  Porter did score well at the shuttle run so he does have solid body control and change of direction.  To cap off his below average athleticism Porter had the worst max vertical with 31”.  Porter is subpar when it comes down to lower body explosion, back foot burst and lateral movement.  Porter is another candidate for functional athleticism versus actual athleticism.  Clearly not every great basketball player was a great athlete.  Testing well at the combine versus game speed aren’t mutually exclusive abilities.  However the danger lies in the fact that the position of center is increasingly becoming harder to play if you lack actual athleticism.

Even though I have Porter listed as “PF/C” it would be in his best interest if he played center at the next level.  As a center shooting is becoming more relevant in today’s NBA and Porter looks to become apart of the growing trend.  He shot 36.4% from three, 75% from the free throw line and posted a 1.153 PPP (points per possession) at all half court jump shots which ranks 88th percentile.  His shooting mechanics for a bigman are very encouraging; shoots lefty, feet are tilted on the load and sways on the follow thru to generate power, doesn’t strain shoulders for distance, dip is pretty quick around the stomach area at times, inconsistent set point and follow thru.  Sometimes the set point will be below the eye and the next it will be above the eye, needs to find a repeatable spot.  His follow thru is either an extended upwards release or a short choppy wrist motion. As soon as he finds harmony on those motions Porter should become an even more reliable shooter.  

He doesn’t have a face-up game or can create for others off live dribble yet.  His handle is actually solid for a man his size using crossovers and spin moves off the bounce but he doesn’t bend the defender with his live dribble.  61.7% of his shot attempts came from spot-up, post-up or roll-man type actions.  He’s a good screen setter that doesn’t shy away from contact.  Tends to pick-and-pop mostly, rarely dives.  Out of 66 roll-man shot attempts he finished on a dive only 9 times.  Since he doesn’t have lower body explosion, a quick second jump or a large catch radius he becomes more planted on his roll attempts.  He has to use his timing and manipulate the gaps between the ball handler to his advantage if he wants to become a good roll-man at the next level.

If he has a mismatch on a roll or switch he will instantly get the smaller player on his hip, seal the player and take them down to the block for post entries.  When in the post he uses over the shoulder flick shots, hook shots, dropsteps and fadeaways but can become too left hand dependent at times.  He uses pivots and pump-fakes to create separation in the post sporting a 1.114 PPP on all post-up attempts.  But he’s not very good around the basket (not including post-ups) sporting a .911 PPP which ranks 18th percentile. The problem I’ve noticed is that he will scrunch his shoulders, narrow his body and act smaller then what he actually is due to overusing pump-fakes.  He doesn’t have much lift or a quick jump so he tries to get his man off his feet first before he goes up.  He definitely needs to get stronger, use his shoulders and the rim as his protection.

His specialty on offense is by far his passing and high IQ.  He uses his basketball IQ at passing from all angles on the court and will make incredible one handed pocket passes in transition.  When in the post he will read the double or dig and kick it to the next man on the swing.  He reads the weak side tag-man so well and kicks it to the opposite corner as soon as he notices the defender motion middle. He’s great at high to low post feeds and hardly ever catch-and-holds the ball; is a willing ball mover.  He also uses his IQ reading a defenders actions; cuts to the rim as soon as his defender turns his head or slips the screen on a switch.  Porter is also a great rebounder attacking the ball mid-air.  He may not have the hops but times his jump and fights for position before the opposition gets set.  He is a hustle player that produces second chances.  Porter is the kind of player that even though he didn’t grab the rebound himself his attack of the glass or box-out will lead to one of his teammates getting the board.

Even though we have established that Porter is a below average athlete he was a plus defender his freshman season.  He still has his defensive flaws like not being able to contain penetration, lacks lateral movement on switches, can be too grounded at times and isn’t versatile at pick-and-roll coverage; overuses drop coverages.  Those are definite question marks when talked about at the next level.  But there still is a lot to like.  For starters his communication is amazing being able to point out actions, direct players on rotations and sniff out any misdirection.  Porter may be prone to getting beat at the point of attack but if he can sink his hips and stay with the ball handler since he has enough change of direction ability to distort angles and contest drives at the basket.  He does a fine job staying in an athletic, low stance with good balance at all times.  Sometimes he needs to do a better job closing air space on the perimeter attacking closeouts; can be late on rotations due to lack of quick twitch movement.  He does a good job walling off drives, helping the helper and staying vertical.  He uses his great hand-eye coordination and anticipation on weak side blocks and well timed swipe downs resulting in 4.1 total steals/blocks per 40 minutes.  However he can get too handsy at times and will overextend himself on shot attempts fouling 4.8 times per 40 minutes.  His upside might be limited on defense but uses his IQ and functional athleticism to defend at a high level.

…………………………………..

So now that I had time to digest my breakdown do I think Jontay Porter is a projected lottery selection for this upcoming draft?  If he had come out this past draft the answer would be no.  This upcoming draft on the other hand looks to be weaker than normal.  Porter looks like a Kelly Olynyk type of player: an unathletic big who can shoot threes, pass, screen, dribble hand-off and be sound on defense.  Although I think Porter has more upside then Olynyk the fact is they are solid glue-guys and role players.  As of now the 10-20 range is probably where I have him spotted.  But there is a new crop of players coming in and random prospects always pop up out of nowhere.  This is a discussion that’s tabled for now and will be re-examined for another day.

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Scouting Report: Jerome Robinson

 Jerome Robinson                                                                                                Boston College                                                                                                                 Jr.                                                                                                                                                    SG                                                                                                                                                6’5”                                                                                                                                                6’7.25” wingspan                                                                                                                  8’2” standing reach                                                                                                              188.4 pounds                                                                                                                           21.6 years old

Ever since the draft I really wanted to do a legitimate scouting report for Jerome Robinson.  He was the biggest reason why I didn’t like the Clippers draft and yet I’m a huge fan of Shai Gileous-Alexander.  I thought there were better players to draft at pick 13 and wondered if it was a wasted opportunity.  Robinson wasn’t a player I took into consideration for my top 20 prospect rankings so I didn’t do my due diligence properly and knew very little of him to begin with.  I want to do a more comprehensive breakdown so I can give a more informed guess as to what I think he could become.  As of now I think the Clippers should’ve drafted players like Miles Bridges, Lonnie Walker or Zhaire Smith over Robinson.  After this scouting report I’ll decide whether I still agree with that sentiment and how I feel about the Clippers draft now that I’ve broken down his tape some more:

 

To start off with his physical profile it may be average or even below average.  It’s never a good sign that a projected late first round or early second round pick doesn’t go through the athleticism testing portion of the NBA combine.  For instance Robinson’s agility, shuttle run and 40” vertical could’ve validated the perception around the league that he isn’t a good athlete.  But from what I’ve seen on tape he does actually have surprising hops for intended alley-oops but overall displays average at best foot speed, recovery time, burst and length.  Being an amazing athlete isn’t the end all be all for NBA success but it sure does help when you’re on an island defending top notch isolation players with no help behind you.  The way players like Robinson without a great physical profile make it through the NBA is high IQ, fundamentals and functionality.  Robinson will be a nice litmus test when comparing functional athleticism and actual athleticism.  Robinson might not perform well when it comes down to athletic testing but that doesn’t exactly mean he won’t display quality game speed at the next level. 

On offense the first thing you have to start with is his shooting.  I’m assuming that’s one of the biggest reasons why the Clippers drafted him shooting 40.9% from three his junior season and 1.066 PPP (points per possession) on all jump shots off the dribble which ranked 91st percentile.  His shot mechanics are sound for the most part; dips around the waist, dead eye set point, nice sway, with some inconsistencies involving his follow thru motion.  At times it will be an extended upwards release with a high point, other times it will have an “out” motion with more wrist action.  He did shoot 33% from three his sophomore season so being as consistent as possible with his follow thru will be key moving forward.  To step into his shot he uses the hop or 1-2 but mostly uses the 1-2; will that affect the timing of his release at next level?  He’s a well versed shooter at pull-up, off dribble, catch-and-shoot (1.186 PPP, 77th percentile) or spot-up jump shooting.  He doesn’t use his all-around shooting skill to his advantage off-ball as much as he should though.  He does a good job relocating off ball and filling the gaps for extra passing angles but doesn’t use his gravity to affect spacing whether that be off screen, cutting or being the screen setter.  When a defender lock-and-trails his off ball movement Robinson will use head fakes or hand swipes to create more distance between the two but due to his lack of strength/athleticism needs to be more concise with his footwork and actions to use his off-ball gravity to his advantage.

Robinson will utilize pump fakes the most while attacking closeouts but uses a variation of pivots, rip thrus, step-backs and pull-backs to create separation.  When Robinson drives the lane he narrows his hips and becomes more shifty then one would expect with average athleticism using hang dribbles, crossover moves, in-and-out dribbles and a behind the back handle creating shots for himself in the process.  He needs to develop more combo moves after his initial counter if he wants to get his man leaning for a beat.  He lacks a quick first step off the bounce and can be sloppy with his handle not being precise with his motion.  His handle needs to improve in transition also.  He’s more of a straight line driver when it comes to transition, when a defender walls off his fastbreak lane he struggles to side or euro step.  Would like to see him use jump stops more often.  Robinson has shown trouble dribbling versus length and athleticism but is pretty proficient with either hand helping add to his shimmy.  

As a pick-and-roll ball handler Robinson was one of the most efficient players in college basketball last season sporting a 1.041 PPP on those type of plays which ranked 94th percentile.  He did a good job reading weakside coverage looking for lobs, over-the-top and pocket passes.  Sometimes though he will keep his head down and get stuck baseline with nowhere to go forcing a mid-air jump pass back out.  On pick-and-roll drives he will pick up his dribble getting stuck in no mans land as well, needs to keep head up and continue his dribble as much as possible.  Even though he isn’t the greatest athlete Robinson can create off the bounce using his change-of-pace, change-of direction dribble moves looking for dump or drift passes.  Robinson will take some risky passes, overall he had a 1.14:1 assist-to-turnover ratio for his entire college career which isn’t amazing but solid.  Robinson needs to add more finesse to his around the basket game with more inside hand, inside foot layup attempts to get defenders off rhythm.  Adding floaters, reverse layins, finger rolls, push-shots and hook shots to is game will be paramount for finishing against NBA length.

Defensively Robinson really is a mixed bag.  He’s does a fine job reading weakside pick-and-roll coverages by bumping the roll-man and recovering to his own on time.  Although on his closeouts he needs to be more balanced with better angles taken due to his lack of quickness.  From time to time Robinson will float on defense and lose track of his man; needs to stay focused of his man off-ball.  Robinson is a little too flat footed on rebounds, doesn’t attack the ball while it’s in the air or fight for position; tends to run back more often.  Robinson might have on-ball defensive troubles at the next level.  As soon as Robinson’s hips open up guarding the dribble it’s tough for him to recover because lack of physical profile.  His ability to switch will be questioned as well.  Can he stay with quick point guards?  Can he guard bigger wings?  Can he bang with frontcourt players?  He needs to get stronger if he wants a chance at that plus fighting thru screens wasn’t a strong point of his either.  When Robinson is at his best defensively he gets his butt underneath him, arms balancing his core, not reaching and sliding his feet with anticipation.  Still, an argument can be made that out of the three seasons Robinson played at Boston College only this past year did he show he can defend at an NBA level.

………………………….

Now that I’ve had time to thoroughly breakdown Robinson’s game do I still think the Clippers should’ve drafted Miles Bridges, Zhaire Smith or Lonnie Walker?  My answer is yes.  Robinson doesn’t offer the two-way potential with switch ability and pick-and-roll coverage versatility that those other players do.  Do I still think dislike the Clippers draft?  Even though I still would’ve taken a bunch of players over Robinson, doing this scouting report makes me understand why the Clippers drafted him in the first place.  His pick-and-roll skills, ability to shoot off the dribble, passing, three point shooting and high IQ on defense makes me change my mind towards my original assessment about the Clippers draft.  I’m obviously still skeptical of the Robinson selection but there’s less doubt today than there was yesterday.

*All Stats Provided By Synergy Sports Technology*

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College Draft Player Breakdown sports

2018 Prospect Watch: Futures/Raw (continued again)

De’Andre Hunter, SF/PF, Virginia, FR(RS)

6’7/222 pounds/7’2 wingspan/20.3 years old    

~ Get to know the name De’Andre Hunter.  He is currently the darling of the scouting community and for good reason.  At 6’7 with a 7’2 wingspan, solid jump shot and great defensive prowess he has all the makings of a modern day NBA swing forward.  When I first saw him play against West Virginia I thought he had great length and potential but for the most part was a three to four year project.  He had no consistent jumper to speak of, a rigid handle and was learning his defensive assignments.  During non-conference play Hunter only made 3 three point shots, played in 4 games of at least 20 plus minutes and scored double digits 3 times.  He was someone to keep tabs on for the rest of the season but I wasn’t expecting much from the redshirt freshmen.  What a difference three months makes.  

During conference play Hunter is shooting 47% from three and is averaging 18.9 points, 7.7 rebounds per 40 minutes.  He only averaged 22.8 minutes per game during conference play but has played 25 plus minutes five of the past eight games.  Considering Virginia is deep with good upperclassmen players there has to be more built in trust for Tony Bennett to play Hunter extended minutes.  Hunter has made so much progress from the first game of the season to now.   

His jump shot is still pretty inconsistent even for shooting 47% from three in conference play on only 1.9 attempts per game.  The mechanics on his shot need some tweaking; his set point is above his head, sometimes two ball lengths above his head, then has an “out” release flattening the arc on the ball.  The accuracy is fine but the arc isn’t consistent.  He needs to lower his set point to his forehead and have an “up” follow thru on his release.  That would put more arc on the ball and have a consistent high release point.  Overall as a catch-and-shoot player Hunter is a 1.098 PPP (points per possession) which ranks 64th percentile and a 1.00 PPP at half court jump shots which ranks 65th percentile.  Messing with shot mechanics is a dangerous game but it’s worked for Kawhi Leonard and Jayson Tatum at the next level.  Even though his three point percentage for this season is 38% and his conference percentage is 47%, his mechanics and small sample size say he needs to alter some things slightly on his jump shot.  

His ball handling is dependable but both hands could use some work to be more secure.  As an isolation player Hunter has a 1.13 PPP which ranks 87th percentile.  He can drive left or right and finish thru contact at the rim.  Shots around the basket (not including post-ups) Hunter is a 1.233 PPP which ranks 70th percentile.  He isn’t an offensive pick-and-roll player just yet and that’s something I’d like to see him develop next season.  He needs to be a sturdier screen setter, better rim-runner and more proficient pick-and-roll ball handler.  As of now he is more of a spot up jump shooter, who cuts and works out of the midrange.  He likes to use a variety of step-backs, jab-steps and pull-backs to create space when he’s operating out of the midrange.  Before he can enter the draft he needs to become a better well rounded offensive player. 

Defense was the very first thing that excited me about Hunter.  Even back in non-conference play Hunter used his length and quick feet to switch 1 thru 5, hedge hard and promptly recover and make on a string rotations.  He has blossomed as one of the better defenders in the country during conference play.  He’s done an excellent job of slowing down pro prospects like Marvin Bagley, Josh Okogie and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.  As a one-on-one defender Hunter can guard multiple positions, move his feet, get low and shut downs angles in a hurry.  He isn’t an amazing athlete like Hamidou Diallo from Kentucky but Hunter is still a very good athlete.  He will have an occasional lapse on defense, miss an assignment or miss read a pick-and-roll coverage but overall he has everything scouts look for to be a premier wing defender at the next level.    

In my opinion he needs at least one more year of school to sharpen up things defensively and to develop more pick-and-roll skills offensively.  I read columns stating that he should enter the draft this season and that’s a possibility depending on how the tournament goes for him.  It could catapult his stock into the lottery since the wing depth is poor this draft and the NBA in general.  Mikal Bridges from Villanova is an example I always go back to.  He was a redshirt freshman himself, developed more skills the next two seasons and now is a possible lottery pick this draft.  Hunter is further along than Bridges was but the same theory applies.  Next years draft is looking pretty weak and if Hunter rounds out his game than I wouldn’t see why he can’t be a lottery pick next year.  Keep an eye on De’Andre Hunter come march madness, the rest of the scouting community will be too.  

* All stats provided by Synergy Sports Technology *

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College Draft Player Breakdown sports

2018 Prospect Watch: Futures/Raw (Continued)

Omari Spellman, PF/C, Villanova, FR(RS)

6’9/255 pounds/7’2 wingspan/20.6 years old

~ Omari Spellman reminds me of Mikal Bridges his freshmen season.  Both were redshirted, had NBA potential, raw, nice size, a budding skill set and overall interesting pro prospects.  Fast forward three years and Mikal Bridges is on path for a lottery selection come this June.  Bridges developed his three point shot, his footwork, his handle and passing ability on top of having elite defense.  If Spellman puts the proper work in like Bridges did than becoming a first round selection is totally within reach.

Even though I list Spellman as a PF/C he really is more of a center than a power forward at the next level.  His size at 6’9 with a 7’2 wingspan and 255 pounds is capable of playing both front court positions but his athleticism is what’s hindering him of thriving at either front court spot.  He’s not a bad athlete but NBA power forwards are getting quicker and faster by the year and Spellman has good enough athleticism to deal with centers primarily.  His conditioning and body need to improve for that to even be a discussion.  Back in his high school days he was pushing 300 pounds and was noticeably out of shape.  He has done an admirable job of losing weight but he clearly needs to add muscle, lose fat and stay in game shape.  Maybe if he does that than playing either front court position would be a possibility.  

   With that said Spellman has deceptively quick feet and it’s very apparent on defense.  Spellman has a nice defensive stance; constantly low, butt down, feet sliding, hands at ball and man with a steady balance.  He uses his wide frame to shut down air space than he uses his agile feet to cut of driving angles.  At the next level, if he gets in better shape, with his quick feet and defensive stance there’s 1 thru 5 switch ability potential.  He can bang down low on the block, dig in and contest post shots or guard perimeter players thinking they have the advantage than with nowhere to go forced into a mid-range jump shot.  Spellman has to do a better job of recovering after pushing shooters of their spots, not to over help and to box out consistently.  In general Spellman has solid upside on defense.

     His best skill to date is without a doubt his jump shot.  Short compact loading pocket, with a dead eye set point and an up follow thru with a high release point; it’s very balanced and just looks pretty.  As a spot up jump shooter Spellman is a 1.458 PPP (points per possession) which ranks 99th percentile.  Off catch-and-shoot attempts Spellman is a 1.301 PPP which ranks 88th percentile.  Either shooting from the pick-and-pop, pull-up, spot up or catch-and-shoot Spellman has good form and fine footwork turning into a variety of shots.  He needs to improve his ball handling as Spellman is typically a one dribble, pass or shoot type of player.  Since he plays with four other shooters on the court at all times he gets good looks regardless but in the NBA he’s going to have to put the ball on the floor from time to time.  Spellman can pump fake, jab step than take one dribble or side-step into a shot but he needs to show he can get to the rim and finish off the bounce.  

Villanova plays a four-out one-in motion styled offense where Spellman sets a bunch of pin-downs or rub screens.  The offense doesn’t call for many traditional ball-screens so his ability to rim-run is seldomly used.  He has a board frame so he can set capable screens but rarely do we see him roll.  Spellman plays mostly spot up, pick-and-pop and post up.  His post-up game isn’t bad but it isn’t great.  He can face up, drop step, turn the shoulder or hook shot but since he’s not an amazing athlete his explosion off those shots are lacking; could have trouble getting shots off versus NBA length/athleticism. 

Spellman should be at least a three year man at Villanova.  If he keeps on adding a skill every year to his repertoire like Mikal Bridges did then maybe we’ll see Spellman climb up mock draft boards too.  For now Spellman is a ball of potential that’s ripe for the modern day NBA game.    

* All stats provided by Synergy Sports Technology * 

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College Draft Player Breakdown sports

2018 Prospect Watch: Futures/Raw

The “futures/raw” section of my prospect watch deals with players that are currently going to college; no high schoolers like RJ Barrett.  Some of these players are under the radar talents that in time could develop to be first round or possibly lottery picks.  Some others are just players who have a skill or two that translates to the NBA, and with enough year-to-year progress could end up on draft boards.  These are players who you might not know now but could know in a year or two.  No seniors allowed.  

 

Chuma Okeke, PF/C, Auburn, FR

6’8/230 pounds/7’ wingspan/19.5 years old

~ Chuma Okeke has been under utilized on the bench for most of the season.  Sitting behind upperclassmen Anfernee McLemore and Horace Spencer Okeke was averaging 20 minutes per game.  In that time span I saw someone who could be a Channing Frye or Kyle Kuzma at the next level; the potential was there.  But either because lack of playing time, lack of aggression, lack of confidence or unwilling coaching the full arsenal of skill for Okeke laid dormant.  With the recent season ending injury to McLemore has now given Okeke a bump in playing time to roughly 30 minutes a game so far.  I’m interested to see if Bruce Pearl continues to play Okeke that many minutes but with the offensive skill that Okeke possesses it’s hard to believe he won’t. 

The first thing that stands out for Okeke is his NBA size.  Being 6’8 with a 7’ wingspan and a good athlete really highlights his potential as a versatile player.  His athleticism isn’t overpowering and his foot speed could stand to improve but his length and accumen make up for having just good athleticism.  The biggest reason why he made this list was his pick-and-pop play.  Okeke has shot 42.6% from three, 1.25 PPP (points per possession) on spot up and catch-and-shoot attempts which is excellent.  He is constantly setting screens and fanning out to the three point line.  Whether or not he gets the ball the mere fact he is a threat off pick-and-pops opens up driving lanes for ball handlers and puts pressure on defensive pick-and-roll coverages.  He also can create when pushed off the line.  Okeke has a 1.00 PPP on all jump shots off the dribble which ranks 84th percentile.  His handle could use some work especially his weak hand but Okeke can pump fake, put the ball on the floor and either attack the basket or shoot the midrange.  He really doesn’t go to his off-the-bounce game that much and relies heavily on pick-and-pop but in the limited amount of off-the-bounce attempts he’s had so far so good.

Even though he is a good pick-and-pop player Okeke needs to improve his diving skills.  Of the 39 pick-and-roll “roll man” opportunities Okeke has had this year, 34 have been pick-and-pop, 4 he’s slipped the screen and just one was a roll to the basket.  That is something I need to see more of.  Being able to pick-and-pop, drive off the dribble and roll to the rim are three important abilities for “bigs” in the NBA.  Without proper context it’s hard to grade that skill.  He’s also not a post up factor yet and I don’t know if that’s a big worry.  8.2% of his plays are post ups and he’s .647 PPP which is below average.  He definitely could stand to add some up-and-under moves, hook shot with either hand and refine his low block footwork but that isn’t a necessity in the NBA anymore.  Every time I see Okeke at the low block he usually either cuts or fills the three point area.  He can go pinch post every so often and show off his underrated passing skills; he makes great decisions and the ball never sticks with Okeke.     

Defense has been up and down for Okeke.  The Tigers either go 2-3 zone or man-to-man.  I actually think Okeke has done a better job of man-to-man instead of 2-3 zone.  When Okeke goes man-to-man he understands pick-and-roll coverages and rotations better.  But when he goes zone he has trouble guarding and communicating an area and making the correct reads.  When the front line of the zone breaks down he doesn’t wall off the drive in time.  His rim protection skills are questionable since he lacks elite foot speed.  He has quick hands so he can cause deflections and turnovers but defense is an area of improvement for Okeke.  Okeke might be a three to four year college player at Auburn.  There are multiple players playing his position on the Auburn roster and if it wasn’t for an injury his playing time would be limited this season.  Kyle Kuzma stayed three years and Channing Frye stayed four years so I wouldn’t expect anything different from Okeke.  He has shown next level skills that over time can develop into an NBA player.                 

*All stats provided by Synergy Sports Technology*